Observation 23

There is a lot going on in the world around us. Here in the USA we have an incredibly polarizing presidential race. There are the ramifications of #Brexit going on in the UK. There was an attempted military coup in Turkey. The war’s in Syria and other countries are still going on. It seems like complete insanity has taken over the real world. 

In my personal life I am buying a house in one of the hottest markets in the states, which makes me question my own sanity. Even in all of this, with 47 days until real Football, I can’t stop thinking about fantasy football. It is my escape from the insanity.

With social media being so readily available to us, all the hype-train on players can get a little out of control. Especially if you play in leagues with friends on Twitter. This can be a bummer when realizing there probably aren’t many “sleepers” in those leagues unless you can spot it earlier than most. Last off season I was stocking up on John Brown and Bruce Ellington. JB is now a hot name and Ellington is now on other people’s radar too. The key for me was being early on these guys before the hype-train hit. I have been known to be “too high” on Mike Evans and Jordan Matthews so we can take it all with a grain of salt. I also was grabbing CAP late thinking he would perform well, which hasn’t worked out as well. Either way though, don’t be afraid to take shots, especially if they are close to free.

One way to battle the hype-train is to sell the hype. The joy of the hype-train is it allows us to sell players for fair value more easily. People are going to expect you to sell for an arm and a leg. When you only come after the arm, they will be all over the trade. Everyone loves to win big on a trade, but winning small is much easier and both terms are relative. Let’s say you bought something for $0.75 and think it is worth $1 and the hype-train makes it look like it’s worth $2. Selling it for  $1.50 is still good value and a positive gain. 

A less utilized tactic around the hype-train is ignoring it completely. Lots of owners have players with hype, they also have players who will perform well and have no hype. If you believe in a player, use the non-hype to your advantage. The other owner will be so focused on their hyped players and the validation from #experts they won’t be worried about selling the other players. This over confidence can be exploited. It is fun to own the hype, but getting points on game day is what wins.

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