The difference in value between ADP and trade value is always very interesting to me. Many owners want to look to ADP for help with evaluating trades but the open market is often very different.
I noticed in the ADP from DynastyNerds.com the placement of Michael Floyd. It goes as follows:
31. Treadwell (1.02)
33. Michael Floyd
34. Doctson (1.03)
44. C.Coleman (1.04)
(To be fair, it says April/May and i dont know how much of it is from May. Things could look very different at the end of the month.)
Personally I like Floyd. He finished WR37 in PPR with injuries. Had he been healthy I can see him easily being a top 24 WR. A big knock this season is his age, turns 27 in November. He came into the league a little older though and has only played four seasons in the NFL. He is a big asset to the Cardinals passing game and Fitz, though a stud and amazing, turns 33 in August and is bound for regression.
So I was curious where his value in trade would land him in a weak class. The ADP shows he is a high first round pick but it almost never correlates directly to the open market. We saw this with the DT experiment a couple weeks ago. Here is the poll
I am surprised it is so lopsided, as of writing this. The 1.04 is a heavy favorite with twice as many votes as Floyd. There are a few factors going into this is believe.
The first factor is the owners with 1.04 may not feel their team would be competitive the coming year. Floyd’s age and injury history cause people to believe he is an asset short lived. The second is all top four assets in this draft class went to pretty good situations and should all have an immediate impact. It is more enjoyable to envision a reality where you get the guy at 1.04 who cracks the top 20 than it is to envision Floyd doing it. Lastly, rookies are very Hansel, so hot right now.
I am curious about how much this evens out over the next 23 hours before the poll ends. If it is way off I will test it with 1.09. If I can buy Floyd with a late first this year, I do it without question. I may also need to look into AJG… hmmm.