Observation 17

The difference in value between ADP and trade value is always very interesting to me. Many owners want to look to ADP for help with evaluating trades but the open market is often very different.

I noticed in the ADP from DynastyNerds.com the placement of Michael Floyd. It goes as follows:

30. DGB
31. Treadwell (1.02)
32. Jordy
33. Michael Floyd
34. Doctson (1.03)

44. C.Coleman (1.04)

(To be fair, it says April/May and i dont know how much of it is from May. Things could look very different at the end of the month.)

Personally I like Floyd. He finished WR37 in PPR with injuries. Had he been healthy I can see him easily being a top 24 WR. A big knock this season is his age, turns 27 in November. He came into the league a little older though and has only played four seasons in the NFL. He is a big asset to the Cardinals passing game and Fitz, though a stud and amazing, turns 33 in August and is bound for regression.

So I was curious where his value in trade would land him in a weak class. The ADP shows he is a high first round pick but it almost never correlates directly to the open market. We saw this with the DT experiment a couple weeks ago. Here is the poll

I am surprised it is so lopsided, as of writing this. The 1.04 is a heavy favorite with twice as many votes as Floyd. There are a few factors going into this is believe.

The first factor is the owners with 1.04 may not feel their team would be competitive the coming year. Floyd’s age and injury history cause people to believe he is an asset short lived. The second is all top four assets in this draft class went to pretty good situations and should all have an immediate impact. It is more enjoyable to envision a reality where you get the guy at 1.04 who cracks the top 20 than it is to envision Floyd doing it. Lastly, rookies are very Hansel, so hot right now.

I am curious about how much this evens out over the next 23 hours before the poll ends. If it is way off I will test it with 1.09. If I can buy Floyd with a late first this year, I do it without question. I may also need to look into AJG… hmmm.


2 thoughts on “Observation 17

  1. It seems to me like there are two very different types of dynasty players: those who value picks highly and those who value veterans highly. Knowing which type you’re dealing with is very helpful in making deals.

    If draft day is upon you, the promise of that rookie at 1.4 is more valuable than a veteran or even the actual rookie that you can get at 1.4.

    I also believe there are two very different types of people in the world: those who think you can divide people into two different types and those who don’t believe you can divide people into two different types 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Good point, the pick without a name assigned to it is often more valuable. This is partially because we are often best-case-scenario and we image the player we want there.
      The youth vs vet ways of thinking are the most prominent groups probably because on the surface they are the most basic. Within those broad ideas are many smaller and more specific strategies. My opinion, people naturally divide themselves and create divisions and subdivisions. As tribes we are better able to handle things, tribes are part of a basic organization ans safety tool in human nature.

      Liked by 1 person

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