Observation 15

It has been a few weeks, I hope things have gone well for you. The NFL was a roller coaster for most of us. There were high hopes this RB class would go to good situations and clear up others. Wide Recievers did not fair much better with so much defensive talent in this draft but the early run happened where we thought it would. Here is a look at how the first two rounds shook out:

Zeke to the Cowboys at 4
Coleman to the Brown at 15
Fuller to the Texans at 21
Doctson to Washington at 22
Treadwell to the Vikings at 23

That’s it, round one, done for the offense outside QB. Not too surprising. Then we had round two.

Hunter Henry to the Chargers at 35
Shepard to the Giants at 40
Derrick Henry to the Titans at 45
Michael Thomas to the Saints at 47
Tyler Boyd the Bengals at 55

Now I could break each player down and tell you how “I love this situation” and “he is such a great fit” but I will leave it to everyone else. What I want to illustrate is the reality of the situation we have. We knew this class was not great. In the first two rounds only ten offensive players (not including QB) were taken. In comparison, there were 13 last year and 17 the year before that. 14, 15, 13, 13… I could keep going but I think you get it. Though the difference is small, in fantasy we are dealing with teams on a small level. If a league is only 12 teams, unless a QB is taken, you could be picking a third round player. This creates a large gap in hit rate.

Here is how round three has gone since 2010: 11, 8, 8, 7, 11, 11. Three of those years has more than we had in the first two rounds this year. Ranging from big wins like Keenan Allen to busts like Jerrell Jernigan. This year we had:

Kenyan Drake to the Dolphins at 73
Austin Hooper to the Falcons at 81
Braxton Miller to the Texans at 85
Leonte Carroo to the Dolphins at 86
CJ Prosise to the Seahawks at  90
Nick Vannett to the Seahawks at 94

Six… that’s all she wrote. Six. Half way through the second round of your rookie draft, you may be moving on to a day three prospect.

I understand rookie picks are largely lottery tickets. Getting the right guy can pay insane dividends. Remember though that Antonio Brown (a sixth round pick) is the exception and not the rule. For every third rounder like Demarco Murray there are a few Alex Greens.  I wanted to draw this picture to help illustrate how important it is to find someone or something you trust to help find those players with a better chance of hitting.

Also, and this is a big reason, to show why having a plethora of picks is important either to take as many shots as possible or to package for a more known quantity.

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