Observation 12

A continuation of 11, I’d like to dig a little deeper into the variation in player value between dynasty trades and start up ADP.

Currently in dynasty start up drafts Ezekiel Elliot is being drafted just ahead of DT. I was asked the question, “would you take DT or the 1.03?” I would take 1.03 but I believed if I were selling DT I could get more in trade. His value has taken a hit but he has still been a good player for fantasy in past years. Personally I think his best years are behind him and if I earned the 1.03 taking on a vet like DT probably won’t help. So when it comes to his value in trade, it is really a matter of finding the owner who believes in him and will give up the value closer to 1.01.

I posed the question to twitter and this is how it went.

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Of the 280 voters, most wanted DT. Which makes me wonder about his ADP. He is being drafted in front of the 1.03, so that part makes sense. The 38% who prefer the 1.03 is what makes me curious. It seems closer than what ADP would suggest. I know those who do ADP try to get a variety of people in the mock drafts, but I question how much real variety there is. After all, we often surround ourselves with those who think like us. It is human nature, not always a conscious act or fault.

Or is it that after a draft, younger assets instantly increase in value? Is it the longer future and further possibility driving the two assets closer together in value? This would make sense to me. In drafts there are often owners who want to win year one and will take only veteran players in this range. They seek the more proven asset. (Which is a whole topic for another day.) After the draft and every year following, the vets age and smart owners will flip them before a decline. DT is a guy who a few years ago was probably worth multiple firsts. Time and natural shifts in the NFL has brought these assets together.

I thought back to how roster construction is a big factor in a choice like this. So I thought, would others give the 1.03 for DT? Framing it so we are on one side of the trade makes the stance a little stronger and gives context. The answer was close. Again, I think it comes down to why an owner has 1.03. In terms of a start-up, looking at ADP it could be reasoned as a move to a better pick for free. The more telling question may have been, “would you give DT for the 1.03?” (Look for this)

Last thought:

Regardless of which side you like, just take your guys. It is your team. Don’t worry about ADP outside of an aid to help you know when to trade back and maximize the chance to get all of your guys.

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