There is a lot of trading going on during this time before the draft. I wrote about my annoyance with “rebuilding” last week. Now, I’d like to talk more about the art of trading and a view that might help some.
A dynasty league can be treated like the stock market. Your roster, like a portfolio, is always changing in value. You want a diverse portfolio. You want a balance between short and long term investments. Also, you want shares that you believe will gain value. Of course, the stock market is volatile. The same can be said for real football; a player can get hurt or be benched. Some stocks will change more drastically than others; some players have more concrete roles than others. So we should try to find a balance between the high risk, high reward and the steadier investments.
What might look like over-pay initially could still yield a profit down the road. You have to trust your player values as well as your ability to see down the road. If you spend a second round pick on a player, but people says he is only worth a third, it might look like a bad investment. If you chose right though and are able to turn that player into a first, it was a good investment. There are tons of examples of this type of thing happening in both dynasty and the stock market.
A problem arises when we also want to invest in things we like just because we like them. We all have interests and put an emotional value on different things. I might like solar energy or Cincinnati’s run game. Maybe I want to buy into my friend’s social media IPO the day it hits the market. Or maybe I’m a Nebraska fan and it makes me want to draft Ameer Abdullah in the first round. Depending on who you talk to, these might not be wise decisions because we let our hearts get into it.
So, I have few tips:
- Trade your players, without bias, when their stock is up. Or trade for players when their stock is down but you believe it will come back up.
- A team should be diverse in age with depth at each key position and a mix of players with volatile and concrete roles. This will lead to a constant payout, instead of waiting for that one bond to pay big or the IPO to look great but crash hard.
- I’d love to say, “just because he’s your guy, doesn’t mean you keep him or overpay for him.” Because the truth is, it’s FANTASY football. So instead I say this, it’s ok to build a team that you enjoy. But if you want a team with guys you just like, join a free league. In a money league, if you want to come out on top and have your investments pay off, you should treat it as such, as an investment.
- Like the stock market, set your limits. If you buy a player low to sell high, you need to sell when that window opens. If you hold too long, you could miss out.
- It’s ok to consolidate for safety. If you have a few assets that feel too up and down, don’t be afraid to package them together for something steadier. Even if it seems like a bit of an over pay initially, the weekly payout could make it worthwhile. Just do your research and make sure you are comfortable with that player being a long term investment.
- Everything, every player, has a price. If someone wants to overpay, don’t be stubborn.